Monday, September 26, 2011

The Cat is out of the Bag!

Anybody remember the Oslo accords signed in Washington by Rabin, Arafat and Clinton. The accords were also signed by Abbas, the present leader of the palestinian arabs. The details have faded, as has the writing on the accords. Israel gave a finger and the palestinians took the whole hand. Then in the year 2000, along comes Barak, the Israeli Prime Minister at the time, and at Camp David, in the presence of Bill Clinton, offered Arafat a state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital! Arafat rejected this out of hand and started a war.

Watching Bill Clinton on CNN recently, basically blaming Netanyahu for the impasse in negotiations with the palestinians, the most notable feature of the man was how badly he had aged. The thought lingered that perhaps he was having memory problems, and then I remembered the politicians creed....The public has a short memory. The Clinton foundation is financed in the most by Saudi Arabia. His once pro-Israel former New York senator wife is now Secretary of State. Its no wonder politicians give one a feeling of slime......

So they either rely on the public's short memory, or they make statements omitting relevant facts. For example, in the same year that Clinton and Barak were offering Arafat the whole cookie jar, Israel in the name of peace, withdrew from Lebanon. The same lebanon controlled today by Hizbullah and supplied by Syria and Iran.The same lebanon who fired thousands of missiles on Israeli cities. Not convinced? In 2005 israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in the name of peace. Gaza is today controlled by Hamas, islamic jihad, Iran and continues to fire missiles at Israel's southern cities.

CNN calls this selective memory "creating opinion by omission". It interferes with their arab spring agenda. Not quite sure who slithers more, a snake, the left wing media or Washington.

"We will never recognise Israel as a Jewish State, so quit asking". Who said that? Mahmoud Abbas said this only last week . The palestinian rep to the US says the palestinian state will be free of Jews. "Judenrein". The only conclusion is that they want a Palestinian State in place of Israel, not alongside Israel. By their own admission, the two state solution is dead. This author officially concurs. In fact, digging back into the past it should be quite clear that the two state solution was never an option! We further concur with hamas leader, Haniyeh who states it quite simply "...States are not built upon UN resolutions. States liberate their land and establish their entities,"(Reuters). Despite the UN resolution in 1948, Israel had to establish the state by force.

It might possibly be imagination, but their seems to be a distinct shift in perceptions as regards the Middle East.
The fact that the palestinians did not get the support they have automatically come to expect at the UN must have surprised them. Even certain arab countries pressed them to forego the bid (By Abbas' own admission).It looks like the arab spring has let the cat out of the bag and many countries are reconsidering their positions. The Quartet proposal that has just been tabled does not mention the 1967 borders or the settlements. 

Mr Abbas and a few others like Erdogan and Ahminedejad can continue to flap their lips and contribute to global warming with a lot of hot air, but change, if it comes, will come on the ground. Mark my words, the world is changing, and despite the rhetoric, the change is not necessarily positive for the arab world.

In a time of drastic change it is the learners (adapters) who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists - Eric Hoffer

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

The Peanut Gallery


Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant

1.The US consumer price index, gained 0.4 percent in August when including volatile food and energy prices, after an increase of 0.5 percent in July. The so-called core CPI, though, gained 0.2 percent, which was in line with expectations. Consumers paid more for a range of goods and services last month, pushing up inflation and squeezing Americans' purchasing power. Compared to a year earlier, prices rose by 3.8%. PG: The so-called core rate is total nonsense. It does not include food and energy prices. What a sham. Another bill of goods.

2. James Dines:The United States will either be forced out of the Middle East, or quit it voluntarily in order to harmonize with the brand-new phenomenon of a suddenly frugal America. Sensing America’s departure, Turkey is already asserting leadership in the region. PG: Correction! Turkey is trying to assert leadership. The Sunni arab world (Turks are not arabs) probably trusts Israel more than they would the Erdogan hot air ballon. 

3.They say there is a thin line between self-esteem and arrogance. Turkish leader, Erdogan seems to have lost all sense of reality. The man has the gumption to visit Egypt and explain to them why they need his advice on Israel. The Egyptians barely hid their contempt for this non-arab Turk, attempting to replace Egypt as leader of the Arabs. They informed him they would not recall the Egyptian ambassador to Israel. They then refused him permission to visit Gaza. Edogan's speech in Cairo to the arab world was not televised and his visit to Tahrir square was cancelled. With tail between his legs he moved on to Tunisia.

4. EU-candidate Turkey will freeze relations with the European Union if Cyprus is given the EU presidency in 2012, Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay was quoted as saying by state-run news agency Anatolian late on Saturday. PG: Everone must be shaking in their boots. The Turkish leadership appears to be ignorant of how ridiculous their behaviour is construed.

5.The Palestinian attempt for membership of the UN, quite frankly is turning into a farce. So what is really going on here? It appears that this is nothing less than a leadership squabble between Haniyeh of Hamas who is opposed to the attempt, and the Palestinian Authority led by Abbas. Haniyeh: "No leadership has the right to toy with the Palestinians' rights or serve up concessions," he said. Haniyeh also criticized the PA for deciding to turn to the UN without holding consultations with the Palestinian factions first, noting this went against the Palestinian reconciliation agreement. PG:So at least 50% of palestinians do not support the move, and 100% do not recognise Israel as a Jewish State. The UN has become quite the parody.

6. The Palestinian envoy to the US says that the new Palestinian State will not allow Jews to reside. It will be "Jew-free". Last time the Jewish people heard that, it was in German "Judenrein" (Cleansed of Jews). PG:Anybody hear this in the left wing media? Doubt it. Imagine if Israel demanded all its muslim citizens leave.... Forget about a Palestinian State, regardless of what happens at the UN. Its what happens on the ground that matters. As long as the palestinian arabs do not recognise Israel as a Jewish state, its all UN lip service.

7.Emmanuel Navon: The mounting diplomatic tension over the upcoming UN vote on Palestinian statehood is somewhat puzzling since this vote already took place twice. On December 15, 1988, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution with an overwhelming majority (104 in favor, 2 against, and 36 abstentions) calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state on the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip. The General Assembly passed a similar resolution on December 18, 2008. The new resolution expected to pass in the General Assembly will thus be redundant. It will also be irrelevant since General Assembly resolutions are not binding in international law. PG: The move in the security council will either be defeated or vetoed. We believe that the palestinians are not as popular as they once were.

8.President Obama's approval rating has dropped to 41%. A drop to 35% would point to a crumbling of his base. So forget any foreign policy initiatives from the president. He will be focused on shoring up his base and concentrating on staes that are critical to his re-election. Finally, Obama has realised that it all boils down to jobs. Possibly too little, too late. PG: Unfortunately, the world continues to spin and nobody will be putting their plans on hold while Obama tries to put his election house in order.

9.In one century, world population has jumped sevenfold to 7 billion. How does this happen. One explanation is that the average age of  the populations has incresed from about sixty to eighty years old in the developed countries, and from 40 to 65 years of age in the developing countries. So while more babies were being born, less folks were passing away. this might also be one of the reasons social security and medicaid find themselves with financial problems.

10.There is a misconception that the US days as a power are numbered. The peanut gallery hates to put a damper on the party, but the US is still, by far the world's largest economic and military power. Living in africa, one learns that the most dangerous animal is a wounded one. Some friendly and free advice to those celebrating....don't drink too much.

There is no education like adversity - Benjamin Disraeli 

Monday, September 12, 2011

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.


1.Tom Friedman does not think that the social security system in the US is a Ponzi scheme, or a pyramid. In answer to a question by Rick Santelli, he was adamant that it was not.They ended up calling each other idiots. This is the same Tom Friedman of the NY Times who believes that the arab spring signals the birth of human rights in the Middle East. At least he has stopped singing Kumbaya. For the record, the peanut gallery considers the social security system in the US to be a pyramid or legalised ponzi scheme, and anybody who agrees with Tom Friedman (on anything) needs to get his head out of his Silicon Valley.


2.President Obama announced his jobs plan on Thursday. Two questions. Why in two parts, first part to a joint sitting of congress and 2nd part to announce measures to finance the plan, not before congress. Only conclusion is that he is once again playing politics. Once the glitz fades, all we have here is another Chicago politician... and not a very good one at that. Secondly, why did it take him almost three years to come up with a jobs plan? And then he parades around as though he invented the wheel. PG: All the hype and spin around this president has become really tiresome. Stock market appears to agree with this description, tanking 300 points. whoops...sorry, that was because of Europe. So when the market goes up, its Obama, and when it tanks, Its Europe. Sound familiar?


3.The US is going to veto the proposed palestinian state if it ever arrives at the Security Council. Why, one asks? Its quite clear to all and sundry that this administration has no sympathy for Israel (You too, Hillary). Its simple. A win-win for Obama. Elections on the way, which is the simple answer. The real answer is that the palestinians have worked out that the president's foreign policy is a disaster. So the tactic is to remove the process from the Americans to the UN where they have an automatic majority, thus neutralising "citizen of the world" Obama and American involvement in the peace process. That is something that the Nobel peace prize winner cannot afford...another strategic failure. Thus the veto.

4. The media is at it again. The White House Council of Economic Advisors’ seventh quarterly report on the impact of the stimulus reports that the stimulus created or saved about 2.4 million jobs. The media jumps onthis plus for the stimulus plan and spins it for all its worth. What they conveniently forgot to mention is that each job cost the American taxpayer $280,000. If they had cut a cheque for $100,000 to every person employed during this period, they would have saved $427 billion. Mind you, these are Obama's economists, so who knows what the real numbers are.

5.An Egyptian mob attacks the Israeli Embassy in Cairo. This must be the arab spring that CNN promised. In fact, this is Egyptian democracy. Mob rule versus the military. Every day that passes, Mubarak looks more justified. PG:To all the worried souls...relax. The military controls 30-40% of the economy. Egypt's major industry that earns foreign currency is tourism. The military own and control most of the tourist spots in that country. So they will protect their investment while at the same time lining their pockets. That same foreign currency is used to purchase their staple diet - wheat (The pita factories are also owned by the army).
Therefore the only way forward is the peace treaty with Israel.


6.The Egyptian military-run firms hold strong positions in a wide range of key industries, including food (olive oil, milk, bread and water); cement and gasoline; vehicle production (joint ventures with Jeep to produce Cherokees and Wranglers); and construction, in which it benefits being able to deploy conscripts during their last six months of service. We're talking of clothing, we're talking of construction of roads, highways, bridges. We're talking of pots and pans, we're talking of kitchen appliances.


7.And if you are not yet convinced...The military also owns most of the valuable land in the country, including extremely beautiful beaches, and some of the greatest coral reefs in the world which were absolutely crying out for touristic development. The military gave private developers access to the land, and the developers made military officers shareholders in big tourist developments. No one knows for sure how many resort hotels or other businesses in Egypt are run by the military, which controls somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the nation's economy, according to various estimates. Bottom line, officers in the Egyptian military are making "billions and billions" of dollars. The peace treaty with Israel facilitates this!


8.In the past two years, Turkish construction companies launched $7.6 billion worth of construction contracts in Libya, according to Turkey's Foreign Economic Relations Board, or DEIK. In Egypt, Turkish investment is longer term, with $3 billion of assets on the ground. Trade with Syria tripled to about $2.4 billion, between 2006 and 2010, as Turkish textile, pasta and other companies moved operations to Aleppo. PG:Great timing Erdogan. Good thing you have those bank accounts in Switzerland.


9.Erdogan is talking up a storm again. He is on his way to Egypt to try and improve his standing in the arab world and continues to flap his lips. contrary to what the nedia is saying, Turkey and Egypt are rivals for leadership in the arab/muslim world. The bad news for Erdogan is that Turks are not arabs, and that they have another major rival in Iran/Syria and Hizbullah. Fellow blogger, Lilac Sigan who writes 'The Other Side of the Equation' says it best: "So when you have nothing of value to sell to the masses, you can always sell hate. It worked well in Nazi Germany, and it’s working till today in Egypt, in Lebanon, in the PA and in many other places." PG:Erdogan is another one of those thugs who drags everyone down to his level and then beats them at it. The Middle East is facing difficult times in the months ahead. Israel is the least of his problems.


To succeed in the world, it is much more necessary to possess the penetration to discover who is a fool than to discover who is a clever man - Cato the Elder

Sunday, September 4, 2011

The Peanut Gallery

Statements, comments and forecasts that have no substance, but just might turn out to be relevant.


1.In an interview with Al-Arabiya TV, Elaraby, head of the arab league. said that the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt can be amended, noting that the accords are "not sacred - they are not the Koran or the New Testament." In a jab addressed at ousted President Hosni Mubarak he noted that no one ever told Israel off under the old regime. "There were violations and they were ignored," he said. PG: Say what you like about Mubarak. He was a man of his word, and once he made a commitment to peace, he kept it with honour and dignity. Clearly something that the arab league finds abominable and foreign to its culture and breeding.  Note that the Koran and New Testament are sacred. 


2. Pakistan is on the verge of chaos. Infighting amongst different militia, representing rival ethnic groups in Karachi has led to hundreds of deaths in the past few weeks, leaving the local government weakened and at a loss of how to handle the situation. As the fighting intensifies and spreads, this country appears to be facing the possibility of a military coup. PG: This seems to be par for the course for most Islamic countries. 


3.Stratfor: Yet another deadline has passed this week for the completion of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is staffed with Russian nuclear scientists. The Iranians continue to claim that everything is according to schedule and testing is proceeding. However, it’s much more likely that Russia will continue to string Iran along in this project, along with many others. Iran announced that it was filing a lawsuit against Russia after the latter backed out of a deal to deliver the S-300 strategic air defense system to Iran. Then, Iran announced that it was kicking Russian energy firm Gazprom out of a major energy deal to develop the Azar oil field project near the Iraqi border. No love lost between these two "allies".


4.The victory celebration in Libya is premature. As sporadic fighting continues, the battle may be won, but the war has just started. Eventually a pathetic NATO (six months to defeat Gaddafi's piddling army!) will have to withdraw and that will let loose the dogs of war....Presently, Gaddafi is the only circumstance uniting the opposition.


5.So Turkey is finally coming off the fence. And who is the first target? Israel of course. The UN Palmer report, basically clearing Israel of Illegal actions, has resulted in Turkey expelling Israel's ambassador and halting military purchases from Israel. News flash Erdogan. Israel quietly suspended military ties with Turkey immediately after the Marmara affair. As for diplomatic front, another Muslim country showing the world a temper tantrum akin to a kindergarten. Who cares? All the huffing and puffing leaves only the smell of bad breath.


6.Turkey sees itself as a potential leader in the Islamic world, competing with Cairo and Teheran. They have also been selling themselves as the mediating voice of reason in the middle east. Not doing so well in Libya and Syria, are they? As for the Israel-Palestinian process, they can kiss that one goodbye. Financially they have taken some big hits in Libya and Syria, while Israel has moved on to bigger and better things. Clearly the islamization thing is not working too well for them.


7.The first really serious competitor to Apple's iphone has arrived. The Galaxy S2 from Samsung is making worldwide waves and is about to land in North America. The galaxy has a 4.3-inch, Super AMOLED 800x480 screen, a dual core 1.2-GHz processor, fast 4G network connectivity, and a sleek, simple design evocative of the iPhone. By contrast, the iphone 4 has a 3.5-inch, 960x640 screen, a 1-GHz processor, and a slower, 3G connection. PG:What we need now is a good old-fashioned price war...


8.RUSSELL: The Keynesian philosophy is fast losing followers. Everybody wants to spend the other guy's money. Socialism lasts until the other fellow runs out of the money you want him to spend! Regardless of your wishes or abilities, you have to spend more money! We finally have arrived at the big picture - Everything has risk. Even during the Great Depression, "The dollar was as good as gold." And please don't forget that. The only problem was that nobody had dollars. Yes, this time it's really different. And maybe even worse!


9. Strange bedfellows. Germany and Russia are drawing closer to each other, mostly because Russia supplies Germany with gas and in return, Germany responds with hi-tech aid. As US influence wavers, Russia, a raw materials giant, is slowly expanding its influence in the former Soviet Union and Europe.


10. The US may be in temporary economic decline, but don't let anybody be fooled that US military power is in the same boat. The US military is stronger, by far than any of its nearest rivals. The US Navy controls international shipping lanes, allowing for International trade to take place without interruption and protecting free trade agreements. Something most people are unaware of. In fact, some of us take the Western way of life for granted, not realising what an important role the US plays in protecting our freedoms.


11. Imagine if the UN accepts a Palestinian State with the 67 borders. The Palestinians would then have to recognise The Jewish State of Israel. They would also have to give up their claim of the right of return. All this is making Hamas a very happy camper. PG: Israel has been through worse times and will power on. After all, the holocaust  planted a mighty seed. 


When you see a rattlesnake poised to strike, you do not wait until he has struck before you crush him - Franklin D. Roosevelt

Israel - The Miracle Continues...


1.Israel helps stem global food crisis

As crops fail in Russia, as dust bowls replace fertile land in Asia and Central Africa, the issue of food security has leapt to the top of the world agenda. Israel, a desert nation once challenged by its arid geography and a population explosion, has developed a range of agriculture and water technologies that are already helping to feed the world and could provide solutions to many of these problems. http://matzav.com/israel-helps-stem-global-food-crisis 

2.Israel Chemicals signs $490m Indian potash contract

The deal's price is similar to Israel Chemicals and other companies' latest potash contracts in China. In July, Israel Chemicals signed a $235 million contract with China at $470 per ton.

3.Chinese military chief to visit Israel

The Chinese military's chief of staff will visit Israel next week for the first time, the Israeli military said Monday, in what may signal a renewed warming of ties between the Jewish state and Beijing. Chen Bingde will be a guest of the IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, the military said. Bingde's visit follows Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's trip to China two months ago. That was the first visit of an Israeli defense minister in a decade.

4.Israel to build fifth desalination plant

The Israeli Finance Ministry says it has granted a license for the country's fifth desalination plant, to be built in the coastal city of Ashdod.The ministry said Monday that Israel's five plants will together supply 75% of the country's drinking water by 2013. Mekorot Chairman Alex Wiznitzer says the plants will allow Israel to restore its natural water resources.

5.Rafael to double Iron Dome production

The Ministry of Defense is in talks to speed up production and procure the Tamir missiles, partly in view of the latest round of confrontation in Gaza. The Israel Air Force's two operational Iron Dome batteries are based at Ashkelon and Beersheva. They intercepted over 90% of the rockets that would have hit populated areas, over the past few days, including an estimated 25 Grad rockets.

6.Israel's trade with Turkey worth $2b in first half 2011

Israeli-Turkish trade rose 26% to $2 billion in first half of 2011 from $1.59 billion in the first half of 2010, the Federation of Israeli chambers of Commerce reports. Israeli exports to Turkey rose 39% to $950 million from $648 million, and imports from Turkey rose 16% to $1.05 billion from $907 million. Israeli-Turkish trade accounted for 2.6% of Israel's foreign trade in 2010.

COMMENT: Looks like money talks....However, there is no accounting for the stupidity of politicians.


Start by doing the necessary, then the possible, and suddenly you are doing the impossible - Francis of Assisi