Sunday, November 28, 2010

Iran - A Contrary Opinion...Apparently Not

From Ynet (Israels's largest newspaper) News today.....The only way this could have been published is if it had been leaked elsewhere.


WikiLeaks: Mubarak asked for military strike against Iran.
WikiLeaks revealed Sunday that Arab nations supported a military strike on Iran in order to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons, the Guardian reported.
Saudi King Abdullah and other Arab leaders also toed the line with this view, according to the secret files, and asked the US to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The leaders of Jordan and Bahrain called on the US to put a stop to the program, even if it means using military means, the files say.


"Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt referred to Iran as 'evil', an 'existential threat' and a power that 'is going to take us to war', the Guardian reported.


The following analysis was made on this site on October 27th


Obama and Israel
So what is the Obama agenda? The Muslim world is divided between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. It is also divided between Arab muslims and others. Iran regards herself as the leader of the Shiite world and has a grand plan for leadership of the Islamic nations. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the gulf states, amongst others, all fear the Iranian leadership challenge to the Arab world (Iranians are not arabs). Imagine if Iran developed a nuclear capability. That would upset the balance of power in the area. Every time Iran threatens Israel with annihilation, a shiver must run through these countries. And if you are not yet convinced, Saudi Arabia recently allowed Israeli planes to land in a deserted area of the kingdom, close to the Iranian border.This would also explain why the US administartion,during the last year, has supplied these nervous Sunni countries with anti-missile batteries for sums amounting to at least ten billion dollars. Obama also knows that a solution to The Palestinian Issue (even temporarily), would hold him in good stead with these countries and help create an Anti-Iranian coalition. He pressured Israel into a ten month freeze on settlement expansion. Then he kicked up a fuss about building in Jerusalem. Something that no American President before him had ventured. Anybody remember all the election promises...(Jerusalem the capital of Israel etc.)
Also on this site

 

Thursday, November 4, 2010


Iran - A Contrary Opinion

I have said it before and I will say it again. Iran is more of a danger to the Sunni Arab World than it is to Israel. The combination of sabotage and sanctions are having a demoralising effect on Iran. And if what I have said so far could be considered as controversial, try this one. It suits Israel that the Iranian leader behaves like the lunatic that he is. He is by far the best PR advocate Israel could hope for. Definitely better than any "hasbara" (public diplomacy) put out by Israel. I am aware of the many articles creating fear and anxiety in the Jewish world about the danger to Israel, and I would like to say, without diminishing these opinions, that Israel has a plan A, B and C as regards the above. More important, The Iranian president should be just as worried about Israel as The Jewish Homeland is about him. 
And now to what is happening inside Iran.


1.All European states, closed off their skies to IranAir and private airlines in October. This important step was barely noted by the media here, yet as both Germany and Austria also join the boycott, no state would be willing to fuel Iranian planes – and without refueling they can’t fly. No dignified company would risk its permit to enter the United States.


2.All major energy companies have already cut off their ties with Iran. This includes the British-Dutch Shell, the French Total, the Italian ENI, the Norwegian Statoil, and others. This means that Iran is already having trouble getting refined fuel. Lloyd’s, which insured the numerous trucks exporting fuel from Iran, ended its business relationship with Tehran. Now, these trucks cannot enter some states.


 3.As the government in Tehran is facing a real crisis, it announced that on November 21st it shall put an end to fuel subsidies for private vehicles. Up until now, each driver received his first 60 monthly liters of fuel at the cheap price of 10 cents per liter, and dozens of more liters at a low cost. Yet in November this arrangement shall draw to an end, which may provoke the angry street.


4.Iranian GDP growth has fallen from over 6% in 2009 to below 2% in 2010, and these are their figures.
Like I always say...Follow the Money.


5.A top-secret Iranian Imam Ali Base was struck by a triple blast Tues. Oct. 12. The site held most of the Shehab-3 medium-range missile launchers Iran had stocked for striking US forces in Iraq and Israel in the event of war.


6.The cyber attack by the stuxnet virus on nuclear facilities in Iran has been well documented.


7.Another little known fact....There are only two countries in the world with spy satellites. One is the US and 
the other is...you guessed...Israel.Don’t buy into Iranian propaganda. The sanctions and sabotage are forming a chokehold around the Ayatollah regime and Teheran doesn’t know how to free itself. (Next move will be to cut off the ports).
H

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Harper, Obama and Israel

I can't hold my tongue any longer. To see something so clearly, and to be so helpless in preventing it from happening can be most frustrating. Growing up in Apartheid South Africa and then living for 27 years in Israel, one gets to see the world from a different angle.

While serving in the IDF in the territories, more than once, Arab Palestinians looked me directly in the eyes and said "We are going to murder every last one of you in Israel, man woman and child." The look in their eyes was something to behold. Much deeper than hatred or loathing. I believe them, and their leadership. This has been said so many times on so many stages, to the point where Iran, Hisbullah and Hamas, publicly threaten and plan genocide against the people of Israel, it would be foolish to ignore them. York University in Toronto even entertain speakers like George Galloway, who publicly calls for the destruction of the State of Israel. Please google him for a birds eyeview of the perfect anti-semite.

Generations of Jewish history are embedded in all of us Jews. The presence of danger is inbred. However, we all react differently to it, but that is a story for another day. Today there is a heightened, even alarming sense of danger. The alarm bells are ringing, but I am getting ahead of myself. Back to Harper, Obama and Israel. 

Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada has unquestionably emerged as Israel’s greatest friend in the world. Harper’s principled approach to Israel was demonstrated in an extraordinary address he gave in Ottawa to an interparliamentary conference for combating anti-Semitism. Courageously dismissing the traditional political correctness expressed by many liberals, He said that the persecution of Jews had become a global phenomenon in which anti-Semitic ideologies targeted the Jewish people in their “homeland” and perversely exploited the “language of human rights to do so.” He stressed that “while Israel is the only country in the world under attack, is consistently and conspicuously singled out for condemnation, I believe we are morally obligated to take a stand. “The correct thing to do is simply to just go along with this anti-Israeli rhetoric, to pretend it is just about being evenhanded, and to excuse oneself with the label of ‘honest broker’… There are after all, a lot more votes in being anti- Israel than taking a stand.


“But as long as I am prime minister, whether it is at the UN or anywhere else, Canada will take that stand, whatever the cost. Not just because it is the right thing to do but because history shows us that the ideology of the anti-Israeli mob tells us all too well, that those who threaten the existence of the Jewish people are a threat to us all.” Canada was in fact “punished” for its support of Israel when it was ignominiously defeated by Portugal, an almost bankrupt country, in its attempt to obtain a seat at the UN Security Council. All 57 seats of the organization of the Islamic Conference opposed the Canadian nomination.

But here comes the shocker!  US Ambassador Susan Rice not only didn’t campaign for Canada’s election but instructed American diplomats to not get involved in the weekend leading up to the heated contest.” In fact,the US delegation went missing during the vote! In the midst of this and despite repeated assurances concerning the “unbreakable bond of friendship” between the US and Israel, Obama is continuing to flex his muscles by beating up on Israel.

Obama’s most recent assault on Israel was conveyed from his childhood home, Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the largest Islamic country in the world, which he praised as a model of tolerance worthy of global emulation. "A model of tolerance?" My foot, what rubbish! In a recent poll, 25% of Indonesians professed support for Osama bin Laden. Where Christianity is barely tolerated, while churches are closed and burned. Needless to say, Indonesia does not recognize Israel, bans Israeli aircraft from flying over Indonesian territory and denies entry visas to Israeli citizens. It is especially galling that from such a country, Obama again saw fit to distance the US from Israel and aggressively condemn the Jewish state for building homes in the exclusively Jewish suburbs of its capital Jerusalem. No wonder Israel is seeking new alliances....

The ten month settlement freeze brought only palestinian intransigence. Now this administration is demanding a further 3 month freeze accompanied by promises that sound more like threats than promises. As if the key to peace is the settlement question. Before 1967 there were no settlements. The key to peace is the acceptance (try 'recognition')  by the muslim world and their cronies of a Jewish State in the Land of Israel. I feel ridiculous having to state this, but clearly not everyone (Thomas Friedman of the NY Times for one)  understands this.

The clock is ticking and the danger thermometer is rising. So if I have not made myself clear, Barak Obama is in the business of betraying friends while trying to reap political gain by shaking hands with crocodiles. Many Americans have realised this and it is my hope that he is doomed to fail. And to all the Jews who are struggling with this, I know how you feel, and where it is coming from. As regards our enemies, it would be a big mistake to think that we have not learned the lessons of the holocaust. History will judge us all, as always.

Thanks to Michael Diamond for his input.

H

Friday, November 19, 2010

Israel - Follow The Money

1. Canada will Represent Israel in Venezuela

VANCOUVER - During a recent trip to the Americas, Canadian Minister of State
for Latin America Peter Kent confirmed that Canada will represent Israel's diplomatic
interests in Venezuela.

Comment: What a friend. We will remember!

2. Gazprom mulls Israeli energy co investment

Russia's Gazprom is planning to invest in Israel and acquire 50% of a private
Israeli company that holds licenses to offshore deposits, form a joint
venture, and start exploration, reports "Interfax", citing Stanizlav Tsygankov,
head of the company's foreign economic operations.

3. Delek Energy unit reports Russian oil reserves

Matra Petroleum plc (AIM: MTA(, a Russian oil exploration subsidiary of
Delek Energy Systems Ltd. (TASE: DEOL) unit reports that the Sokolovskoe
Field in the Orenburg area of the Ural Mountains has 15.1 million barrels of
contingent recoverable resources.

Comment: Yep, An Israeli oil company in Russia 

4. Israel and Russia sign miliary cooperation deal

In September Israel's Minister of Defense Ehud Barak flew to Russia and met 
with his Russian counterpart Anatoly Serdyukov. The two men signed
a military cooperation agreement. For example: advance systems for
protecting strategic installations; systems for fighting in built-up areas; and
other systems for fighting terror. In all matters related to this we have carte
blanche and there is a lot to talk about. "While in Russia, Barak also
met with prime minister Vladimir Putin to discuss the Iranian threat and
arms sales to Syria and Hezbollah.

5. IAI in $400m Russian UAV deal

Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. (IAI) (TASE: ARSP.B1) has signed a
$400 million contract to sell unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to
Russia's open joint stock company OPK Oboronprom. Deliveries will be
made over three years. The Russian authorities still have to approve
the deal. Oboronprom will pay IAI a $280 million down payment, and
will pay the balance as the UAVs are delievered.

COMMENT: Anybody notice a trend......?

6. Israelis 2nd in US real estate investment

Israelis are the biggest foreign investors in the United States after the
Canadians, an international report by RCA real estate assessments
suggests. According to the report, Israelis invested $441 million in US
real estate between January and July 2010. The Canadians, by
comparison, invested some $ 1.67 billion.

7. Tourist figures already surpass all of 2009

Central Bureau of Statistics figures show that 2.87 million tourists
have visited Israel in the period January- October 2010 more than
the total number of tourists who visited Israel in all of 2009.

8.Israel Forex Reserves increase to new record
in October

Israel's foreign currency reserves increased to an all time record of 70 billion USD
at the end of October. This is more than Canada (yes, correct), Argentina, Norway,
Sweden, Australia and The United Arab Emirates amongst others.

It's not whether you get knocked down, it's whether you get up -
Vince Lombardi

H

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Rare Earth Revolution

The more I read about this group of seventeen metals, the more it dawns on me that whoever controls the supply of these metals, controls the world. Literally! China controls at least 90% of the source of REM (Rare Earth Metals). To update on what we have discussed in the past please read "The Middle East has oil, China has Rare Earths" and "Supply and Demand (2)", posted in October and September. The more we learn the more obvious it is that we are just scratching the surface as regards the strategic importance of these metals.

1.World demand for REM is around 60,000 tonnes per annum. China is cutting its exports to 23,000 tonnes next year, from 30,000 tonnes this year, while it builds up inventories. Another indication is that while commodity prices are falling, REM prices remain stable.

2.REM have a range of sophisticated uses from missile systems, precision-guided weapons, night vision and radar systems to hybrid cars, batteries, cellphones and wind turbines. I read that sentence over and over to understand the implications of shortages of these metals. They have unique magnetic  (GM has moved its whole magnets division to China), optical and other properties crucial for miniaturization, lasers and energy efficiency.

3.Catherine Ngai - National Geographic news: “Smart bombs” that use neodymium-iron-boron magnets to control the direction when dropped from an aircraft, lasers that employ neodymium, yttrium-aluminum-garnet used to determine the range of enemy targets at distances over 22 miles, and neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets used for sound system components used in psychological warfare are among the many, according to a 2004 USGS paper. These are just a few examples. Wow! Who Knew?

4.Forget about green technologies, for the moment. Bottom line is that these metals are essential for the manufacture of sophisticated weapons systems. It will take the US and the rest of the world at least five to seven years (some estimate as much as fifteen years)  to catch up on production and mining, using today as a benchmark. Who knows how much will be needed in the coming years. So if the Pentagon and Department of Energy are outwardly calm, trust me when I say that inwardly, anxiety verging on panic is the name of the game. And no amounts of Lorazapan (an anxiety medication) will be of help.

When you have got an elephant by the hind legs and he is trying to run away, its best to let him run-
Abraham Lincoln

H

Monday, November 15, 2010

Obama in La La Land

So now President Obama is accusing China of currency manipulation. Straight off, I apologise for the sarcasm and name calling in this blog, but talk about the pot calling the kettle black! In a previous blog (Obama and the Economy), I attempted to analyse his decision making processes. The conclusion was that he had a problem with his priorities. The hope was that he would get it right as his presidency matured. So far this has not happened.

To be fair, Obama was left holding the baby. However, to be completely fair we need to look at both sides of the coin. The promise was of a new political determination from Washington. The key word used was "change". He was going to fix the mess. Without getting into the details, the mess continues and the only change is that the majority of Americans, with a vote of no confidence in this administration, have sent a message to Obama..."get the job done, or take a walk".

So back to the  pot and the kettle. For the last forty years, successive American administrations have been devaluing the dollar and creating debt. The idea is quite simple. Borrow from China, Japan and others and repay the debt with devalued dollars. Pretty smart if you are 35% of world GDP. But as they say, you can only fool all the people some of the time. Today the US is only 20% of world GDP, has enourmous debts, a stagnating economy and high unemployment, but whose president continues to behave as if they are the most powerful nation on earth. Time to wake up and smell the coffee.

As long as the world accepts the USD as the worlds reserve currency, they can and will continue to print paper money and  create debt. In fact, this is the only way to repay the ballooning debt. The normal family knows how much money they have in the bank. They know what their debts are, and adjust accordingly. Buy less, save more and prepare for their childrens future. They leave the "complicated" decisions to their leaders.

Bottom line is that the G20 rejected President Obama's demand for a resolution calling for China to revalue its currency. A new coalition is forming that is aligning itself with China, and this coalition includes the developing economies and parts of Europe. So the question arises, why did Obama choose this time and place for a confrontation with China? Especially since it led to such a devastating defeat for him.
To quote ABC News "The G-20's failure to adopt the U.S. stand has underlined Washington's reduced influence on the international stage, especially on economic matters. In another setback, Obama also failed to conclude a free trade agreement this week with South Korea."

Once again we have the problem of timing. A few days ago, Bernanke decided to execute QE2 and print a further 900 billion dollars. The clear conclusion is that the US is pushing to devalue its currency and minutes later, Obama calls on China to revalue. There are a lot of stupid people around, Barak my man, but not that stupid! Twice within a week, the once revered rock star has egg on his face. Sometimes it pays to take a step back and rethink one's situation.

Lets take a look at the situation. Let us assume that a country's economic strength is measured by the strength of its currency. The USD is the world's reserve currency, but China clearly has ambitions to take over this role eventually. For this they would have to let their currency float. At the end of the day, nobody is bigger than the market. And in todays atmosphere, one could be sure that no matter what was decided, China would do what was good for China and nobody will dictate to the rising economic star. So what was the point of all this? It appears that presidential decisions are made by a flip of the coin, or maybe even a little panic driven. Most presidents are either good politicians or good leaders, or both. I doubt whether this president fits into any of these categories. Hopefully he will prove me wrong.

A word of warning to all who are writing off the US. There is nothing more dangerous than a wounded  and cornered animal. I would be the last to write off this great power.

Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat - F. Scott Fitzgerald

H

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Wall Street Celebrates - Bloomberg and Russell

1.The Treasury will buy $850 to $900 billion of securities through June, or about $75 billion of Treasuries a month. Said the New York Fed. Not all the purchases will be in Treasuries. The Fed will buy $600 billion of Treasuries. On this news, the dollar sank to a nine-month low vs. the euro and the Dollar Index sank to a new low for the move. The Debt bubble continues to grow. The markets rise as cash runs for inflation cover. Some would call this “demand pull inflation”

2.The US will never pay off its debts. The US will renege on its debts via the Fed way, by devaluing the dollar through inflation. When the crap hits the fan, the current Washington bunglers will be long out of office and reading about their stupidities in nursing homes.

3.Millions of words are written every month about the US economy and the world economy. Some of it is true, but a lot of it is pure bunk . All economics can be reduced to one sentence. That sentence is, "FOLLOW THE MONEY."

4.In our studies of the stock market and investing, we're really just following the flow of funds. The stock market is a weighing machine. The stock market gathers together all the knowledge, the dreams, the ambitions, the hopes, and the fears of tens of millions of investors. Each minute, each hour, the stock market represents an accumulation of what everybody knows about anything and everything.

5.This brings to the stock market a mysterious and marvelous power. It's the nearest thing we have to a crystal ball. But it's a cloudy crystal ball, and it's not easy to read.

6.Two Headlines in the WSJ today. "Food Sellers Grit Teeth, Raise Prices. Packagers and Supermarkets start to pass along rising costs, even as consumer pinch pennies."
and "Insurer WellPoint Sees Costs Rise." It;s beginning to happen. The rise in prices of raw materials and commodities is starting to affect costs. Some people call this "Cost push inflation".

7.From Sotheby's and Christies auction catalogues. The prices being paid for certain items are incredible. Most of the hot auctions take place in Hong Kong or Geneva. A pink Diamond is up for sale at Sotheby's for $16 to $20 million. Top-quality jade is always a wanted item in China, and the prices being paid are mind-blowing. A simple bangle is up for auction -- price: over a million. At Sotheby's a Modigliani nude just sold for a record $68.9 million. Paper currencies are starting to lose their attraction.

8.Under the new health care bill -- did you know that all real estate transactions will be subject to a 3.8% Sales Tax? The bulk of these new taxes don't kick in until 2013 (presumably after Obama's re-election). Oh, you weren't aware this was in the Obamacare bill? Guess what, you aren't alone.

9.The oldest, shortest words – “yes” and “no” – are those which require the most thought. - Pythagoras

H

Iran - A Contrary Opinion

I have said it before and I will say it again. Iran is more of a danger to the Sunni Arab World than it is to Israel. The combination of sabotage and sanctions are having a demoralising effect on Iran. And if what I have said so far could be considered as controversial, try this one. It suits Israel that the Iranian leader behaves like the lunatic that he is. He is by far the best PR advocate Israel could hope for. Definitely better than any "hasbara" (public diplomacy) put out by Israel. I am aware of the many articles creating fear and anxiety in the Jewish world about the danger to Israel, and I would like to say, without diminishing these opinions, that Israel has a plan A, B and C as regards the above. More important, The Iranian president should be just as worried about Israel as The Jewish Homeland is about him. 
And now to what is happening inside Iran.

1.All European states, closed off their skies to IranAir and private airlines in October. This important step was barely noted by the media here, yet as both Germany and Austria also join the boycott, no state would be willing to fuel Iranian planes – and without refueling they can’t fly. No dignified company would risk its permit to enter the United States.

2.All major energy companies have already cut off their ties with Iran. This includes the British-Dutch Shell, the French Total, the Italian ENI, the Norwegian Statoil, and others. This means that Iran is already having trouble getting refined fuel. Lloyd’s, which insured the numerous trucks exporting fuel from Iran, ended its business relationship with Tehran. Now, these trucks cannot enter some states.

 3.As the government in Tehran is facing a real crisis, it announced that on November 21st it shall put an end to fuel subsidies for private vehicles. Up until now, each driver received his first 60 monthly liters of fuel at the cheap price of 10 cents per liter, and dozens of more liters at a low cost. Yet in November this arrangement shall draw to an end, which may provoke the angry street.

4.Iranian GDP growth has fallen from over 6% in 2009 to below 2% in 2010, and these are their figures.
Like I always say...Follow the Money.

5.A top-secret Iranian Imam Ali Base was struck by a triple blast Tues. Oct. 12. The site held most of the Shehab-3 medium-range missile launchers Iran had stocked for striking US forces in Iraq and Israel in the event of war.

6.The cyber attack by the stuxnet virus on nuclear facilities in Iran has been well documented.

7.Another little known fact....There are only two countries in the world with spy satellites. One is the US and 
the other is...you guessed...Israel.Don’t buy into Iranian propaganda. The sanctions and sabotage are forming a chokehold around the Ayatollah regime and Teheran doesn’t know how to free itself. (Next move will be to cut off the ports).

I am off to Israel for a week and on return, we can look at Obama, the elections, the Fed, and what now? The aftershock should be quite interesting.

When you want to fool the world, tell the truth - Bismarck

H

Monday, November 1, 2010

CNN and Sarah Palin

Recently I was watching four commentators on CNN discussing the merits of Sarah Palin. All four were trashing her and competing with each other on who would make the more derogatory comment. And each belittling comment was accompanied by laughter and merriment. The presenter could barely hide his pleasure.
My first thought was "how distateful". That was followed by a string of thoughts and observations. Clearly there is a disconnect between CNN and the American public, to the point where the biased right wing channel, Fox News has become the most popular news channel in the States. How did this happen?

Lets start with the basics. Ninety percent (90) of  American wage earners make $100,000 or less per annum. The other 10% are a mixture of smart businessmen, inherited money and upper crust members of society. Sometimes they are known as the "privileged". Some are famous (actors, authors, singers etc.) others less. As the communication industry develops, many have been given a voice in shaping society.

Some (and I stress, some) of the "privileged" believe that their affluence and fame entitle them to leadership roles, regardless of the source of the prosperity.  This has developed to the point where they have lost sight of the fact that they live in a country where 90% of the people are struggling to make ends meet. This same majority sit night after night in front of the TV set, open mouthed, as they watch these privileged "intellectuals"
showing off their superiority, sometimes in the most arrogant of ways. No wonder CNN is floundering.

So maybe Palin is not the smartest of politicians. Maybe she continuously puts her foot in her mouth. But whether you like her or not, many Americans identify with Mama Bear, and the more she is humiliated by
CNN and others, the angrier they become. Not smart (regardless of how educated or famous these 'experts' are).

The general public is already angry. They have seen how the establishment created a massive debt bubble, and now they watch as an even larger debt bubble is in the making. Lets be honest, whatever your politics, most parents are aware of the problem being created for their children, and for the following generations. So CNN, mock the Sarah Palins of the world at your peril. Try respecting the little people from your tower in the sky. The 'savages' are at your doorstep. This superior attitude is only pouring gasoline on the volcano.

How many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg - Abraham Lincoln.

H